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Upcoming
elections in Turkey and DEHAP By
Mutlu CIVIROGLU |
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Due to the political, social and economical instabilities, early elections have been tradition in Turkey. The worst economical crises of the republic, health of Ecevit, high inflation, unemployment and dissolution of county’s problems have shortened the political life of Democratic Left Party (DSP), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Motherland Party (ANAP) coalition government in Turkey. For these reasons, the government had to pass the decision of holding early elections in November 3, 2002. There are 550 seats in Turkish Parliament and all parties need to pass a very high 10 % national threshold, which is required to be represented in the parliament. Although threshold systems exist in other countries, none of them are high as it exists in Turkey ; it is 5 % in Germany, New Zealand, Estonia, Russia, Poland, Armenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Georgia, South Korea, 4 % in Italy, Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, 3.4 % in Slovenia and 1.5 % in Israel. [It is generally accepted in Germany that the existence of a 5 % threshold has lead to a stability of political life.] The election system in Turkey has been debated for a long time ; there were proposals to decrease the 10 % to a lower amount, for instance, 7 % or 5 %. Although there were some attempts to change the electoral law to lower the threshold, that was renounced later because of fear that the People's Democracy Party (HADEP) would get into the parliament. Ironically, Republican People’s Party (CHP) who failed to get into the parliament in 1999 because of the high threshold, announced it’s opposition to lower it. Not only CHP but also Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) also rejected to lower the threshold. Because there are some scenarios spread that in Turkey only these two parties will get into the parliament and form a coalition, in other parties failure to pass the threshold. According to Turkey’s Electoral Law, this scenario is quite possible. Nobody was expecting CHP’s failure to pass the threshold in 1999. It’s estimated that there will be about 40 million voters in the elections, and a party will have to receive between 3.5 – 4 million votes required to pass the threshold. This threshold was first was put in to effect in 1993 to stop the entrance of pro Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HADEP), who is mostly composed of Kurds, to the parliament. In last two elections, despite receiving important amount of votes HADEP couldn’t enter the parliament because of this threshold. 1995 elections 22 seats of HADEP was shared by other parties especially by Welfare Party (RP) and in 34 seats in 1999 elections by especially Virtue Party (FP). However, it has turned out to be a boomerang for those who built this threshold, because as much as the polls show many of the parties including 3 government are far to pass this very high threshold required to enter to the parliament. As all of the polls and columnists agree, only Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Republican People’s Party (CHP) will pass the threshold but True Path Party (DYP), Young Party (Genc Party). Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) are close to threshold. Unfortunately the Turkish media has been continuing to ignore Democratic People’s Party (DEHAP) and it’s meetings with the participation of hundreds thousands of people. Istanbul meeting of DEHAP which was held on 27th of October showed how serious DEHAP was, since DEHAP gathered more than total participants of all 5 other meetings in same day. Although so called the biggest party AKP organized a meeting in same day in same city, they could bring only 100.000 hundred thousand people to their meeting. Where as, Prime Minister Ecevit’s DSP could hardly bring 7.000 people, his coalition partner ANAP’s leader Yilmaz could address to only 15.000 people. Istanbul is the biggest city of Turkey and it has 70 seats in the parliament, with other words in order to reach an election victory each part should gain good support from this city. In this aspect, DEHAP’s bringing approximately 350.000 to his meeting gives us very important indications, I want to remind you that People’s Democracy Party (HADEP), had received [less than the participants of that meeting], 210.000 votes from Istanbul in 1999. DEHAP, made its final meetings in Batman, Agri, Siirt, Mus, Bitlis and Diyarbakir today [01.11.2002] with participation of hundreds thousands of people. Especially Diyarbakir meeting was encouraging, DEHAP developed its record of organizing the most crowded rally with participation of 500.000 people in Diyarbakir. All of these rallies are clear indicators of DEHAP’s rising performance. As Yeni Safak columnist Koray Duzgoren also mentions “there is a great excitement of elections and a strong wish for representation in the parliament among millions of Kurds. Furthermore, they are all focused on a specific aim, putting all the conflicts and differences aside. Their aim is to be equal citizens in this country and to be represented in parliament as a proof of their Kurdish identity. In spite of those who don¹t want to acknowledge their reality, they want to achieve it by democratic means and be accepted as founder partners of the republic and an integral part of this country, both in the legal and political sense. For such reasons, supporters of the DEHAP Alliance seem excited and determined in contrast to the apathetic and unenthusiastic supporters of other parties. I totally agree Mr. Duzgoren. I believe that on November 4 Turkey will be a much different country ; a parliament with DEHAP which is composed of Kurds, women, socialists, laborers, intellectuals will add its color to the parliament. Thanks to this, Turkey will have the opportunity to solve its Kurdish Question and peoples of Turkey will be represented in the parliament with their diversities. As Chairman Bozlak says, it will be easier for Turkey to get a date for the candidacy of Turkey in Copenhagen, with DEHAP’s presence in the parliament. In my opinion, DEHAP will get 11 % and its torch will enlighten all of Turkey on November 4. [see the list below for other estimations about the percentages of parties].
ESTIMATES ABOUT THE ELECTIONS
[DEHAP was established in 1997 as a precaution of Constitutional Court’s verdict of closing HADEP. After the statement of Constitutional Court President in newspapers, Chairman of People’s Democracy Party (HADEP) Murat Bozlak announced that they with drew from the elections. After that the Labor, Peace and Democracy Bloc, which was established under the banner of DEHAP (Democratic People’s Party), consisting of HADEP (People’s Democracy Party), EMEP (Labor’s Party) and SDP (Socialist Democracy Party).] Below, some passages from DEHAP’s Election Program are given :
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